Ellis Starr's Picks
Friday August 5, 2021
Race 7
Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#2 Watch the Music – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#4 Fenwick – minimum win betting odds 7 to 2
#7 Bureau – minimum win betting odds 5 to 1
(I would not hesitate to be more than one of these at above the minimum odds listed as all three open at 2 ½ to
4 times the minimum odds).
Exactas:
Box 2, 4, 7 over 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
#6 is Uninvited Guest #8 is Atras, #9 is Britain’s Kitten
Watch the Music changed hands between her April race at the level when 11 th and his race just a couple
weeks ago here at Ellis Park on the turf (same as here) and at the level, when he made a BIG mid-race move
five wide on the turf to go from eighth and nine lengths back to lead, before finishing second, clearly so by a
couple of lengths. Not only did he run faster than any horse in the race with a 90 Equibase speed figure, he’s
going to run better in his second start at the meeting and with a better post so he must be considered the one
to beat IN SPITE of opening at 8 to 1.
Fenwick was so highly regarded off his March 12 maiden win at Tampa he was entered in the Blue Grass
Stakes in his next start, then the Preakness six weeks later. Much more realistically placed and now in the
hands of Brian Lynch, he shows a strong “blinkers off/ fast workout” pattern with his last work the third best of
45 on the day. Considering the three inside him have no early speed if Franco puts him on the lead as was
done in his win at Tampa, he may ever look back and I’m not concerned about trying turf for the first time as
the ONLY other foal of his dam won it’s only turf route start, and he’s by excellent turf sire Curlin.
Bureau was one of my win contenders on July 29 in an identical situation but scratched to run here. He isn’t as
fast as either of the other two contenders but his 20/1 starting odds mean we can’t ignore him. He ran well 20
days ago over the track, albeit in a claiming race. Still, he finished well from fifth to second in the last eighth of
a mile and if the pace is hot he can finish big again. It MUST be noted Bureau is going from three year olds
and upward to three year olds only which is a class drop that moves horses up. Trainer Watkins claimed the
colt out of that race and has won with better than 1/3 of his new acquisitions (9 for 26) going back to the start of
2021, including one last summer in his ONLY starter at Ellis Park, for the same owner.
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