Ellis Starr's Picks

Sunday August 6, 2021

Races 6, 7, 8 and 9 (all stakes)


Race 6

Twin Spires Turf Sprint
Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#1 Totally Boss – minimum win betting odds 8 to 5
#5 Into the Sunrise – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#7 Thanks Mr. Eidson and #2 Charcoal are also contenders to be considered for multiple race bets like the
pick 3 and doubles.
IF the race moves off the turf and is run on dirt, the contenders are #1 Totally Boss and #8 Necker
Island. Additionally #2 Charcoal, #7 Thanks Mr. Eidson and #5 Into the Sunrise might be considered.
Totally Boss won this race last year off a huge effort when defeated a nose in a turf sprint at Churchill Downs
and enters this year’s race in EVEN BETTER form off a win in a turf sprint at the distance at Churchill Downs,
so is the one to beat. Into the Sunrise may be the “lone speed” in the field and if the course has moisture, all
the better. He’s a perfect two-for-two on the Ellis Park turf including the similar Dade Park Dash Stakes in July,
2021, and his effort one before last against some very tough turf sprinters in New York, where he led until the
final strides, might win this if repeated. Landeros was up just once, for the win last July, and gets on here.


Race 7
Centennial Distaff Turf Mile Stakes

Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#9 Demodog – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#7 Undisturbed – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#4 Take Charge Ro – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2

IF the race moves off the turf and is run on dirt, the contenders are #4 Take Charge Ro & #2
Turnerloose. #7 Undisturbed and #9 Demodog can be considered contenders as well if they remain in the

Demodog is a lightly raced four year old by champion American Pharoah out of the fantastic mare Turn the
Tide, who produced two multiple stakes winners on turf, Avanzare ($573K) and Black Tide ($563K). She will
come under the radar off her third place effort in the Ellis Park Turf Stakes last month but she was off for a full
YEAR prior to that and should take a BIG step forward for excellent trainer Walsh. She won the first two races
of her career last year, both turf routes, and is likely to have a bright future. Undisturbed was second in the
Ellis Park Turf Stakes and broke her maiden a year ago on this date on the same course. She can lead from
the start or relax off the pace as she showed in her allowance win last September on this course and now that
she’s approaching winning form again she could be very tough. Take Charge Ro hasn’t won since January but
two of her three wins have come on turf and her fourth of eight finish in a stakes last month in Indiana
produced a strong 102 Equibase Figure on par with the 105 Undisturbed earned in her runner-up effort in the
stakes last month so she fits as well.


Race 8
Laguna Distaff Turf Sprint Stakes

Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#7 Social Chatter – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#3 Brooke Marie – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2

#10 Toby’s Heart – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
IF the race moves off the turf and is run on dirt, the contenders are #2 Speedometer as well as the
three contenders for turf, if they remain in the race.
Social Chatter could reward us nicely as she opens at 12 to 1 odds. The filly is making her third start off a
layoff, having improved very nicely from her comeback to her most recent race when third in a similar stakes at
Colonial Downs, and she won three times on the turf last year, all sprints like this one. She has no knocks and
shows up nearly every time she runs. Brooke Marie is a MULTIPLE turf sprint stakes winner, having earned
$400K while winning five of 13 on turf, all sprints including the Monrovia Stakes in April in California, which
came off a layoff like the one she’s coming back from today. She, as well as Social Chatter and Toby’s Heart,
has a big late kick which will benefit from the fact that up to FIVE of the others are need-the-lead types, leading
to a hot and contested early pace battle which sets up the closers. Toby’s Heart can win but opens at low 5 to
2 odds which are too low for a win bet considering the other two contenders have the same chance to win and
open at higher odds. Toby’s Heart has won five of 14 on grass including a stakes in May and last September,
and she drops from grade 3 to ungraded. On the other hand Brooke Marie BEAT her in the Monrovia the only
time they faced each other previously.



Race 7
Evan Williams Turf Mile Stakes

Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#3 Mr Dumas – minimum win betting odds 2 to 1
#6 Tut’s Revenge – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#12 Temper Tantrum – minimum win betting odds 9 to 2 (May consider a win/place bet at high odds)

IF the race moves off the turf and is run on dirt, the contenders are #6 Tut’s Revenge, #5 Santos
Dumont, #3 Mr Dumas

One of the keys to this race is whether #7 Dreamer’s Disease and #9 Gray’s Fable both run, because the
former is coming back from nine months off and likes the lead, so will be very fresh and want the front badly,
while the latter is also a need-the-lead type and gets a post which demands the horse be sent hard for the front
from the start to get near the rail before the first turn. If EITHER of them should scratch, the other may be
considered an additional contender.

Mr Dumas has won five of 16 on grass for over $400K in earning and has not been worse than third in his last
seven races, all routes and the last three on grass. He won the Mystic Lake Mile Stakes when last seen and
Gutierrez was up for his last three races, all with 108 or better Equibase Speed Figures which are only
matched by three other horses (Santos Dumont on dirt, Tut’s Revenge on dirt and turf and Gray’s Fable on turf
but only when leading from start to finish) in the past year. He should be in the middle of the pack or even
farther back early and rallying fast late. Tut’s Revenge is also entered to run in the stakes on Saturday and
should be tough here whether the race is run as scheduled on turf or moved to dirt, if he runs at all. He won at
a mile on turf in April with a very strong 110 figure and Corrales stays aboard, choosing him over Kitodan, who
the jockey rode to a win in the Audubon Stakes in June. He also just missed in the Jeff Hall Stakes on dirt last
month at Ellis Park and that’s why he’s a strong contender if the race moves to dirt as well. Temper Tantrum
gives us excellent long shot value opening at 15/1 in spite of a 6-4-1 record in 15 races including a 5-3-1
record in 10 turf races. He’s won FIVE times at this distance and enters the race off a big effort last month
where he missed by a head. There are no concerns Emigh replaces Corrales as the jockey rode Temper
Tantrum to three of his last four wins and all three were at this mile trip on grass.



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