Ellis Starr's Picks
Friday July 29, 2021
Race 7
Win contender with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#6 Courthouse Cove – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1
#2 Bureau – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1
Exactas:
2, 6 over 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
1, 2, 6, 7, 8 over 2, 6
The strategy here is to key on two higher odds contenders, in this case 6 to 1 and 15 to 1 to start, over three
other logical horses and those two. We maximize profit here because if 2 and 6 finish 1 st and 2 nd we win twice.
#1 is Blue Norther, #7 is Kunshan Bridge and #8 is B Dawk
I’m not sure why Courthouse Cove opens at 6 to 1 in spite of almost posting the 33 to 1 upset in a nearly
identical race three weeks ago when battling head and head for most of the last three-eighths of a mile and
coming up a nose shy of winning and still finishing a length in Front of Kunshan Bridge. That effort came after a
totally irrelevant turf try and off the trainer change to Plasters, who’s winning at a decent 16% clip on the year.
Two before that Courthouse Cove broke his maiden in a straight maiden race as the six to five favorite and
now that he’s back in that form he can run big again with Saez riding back after being in the saddle for the first
time earlier this month. Additionally, there is NO early speed inside of Courthouse Cove in the gate so he can
get the early lead and much more easily than he did on July 8.
Bureau also opens at high odds in spite of having run well, 20 days ago over the track, albeit in a claiming
race, not an allowance race like Courthouse Cove. Still, he finished well from fifth to second in the last eighth of
a mile and if the pace is hot he can finish big again. It MUST be noted Bureau is going from three year olds
and upward to three year olds only, the SAME drop that resulted in Courthouse Cove improving from seventh
two back to second last time out. Trainer Watkins claimed the colt out of that race and has won with nearly 1/3
of his new acquisitions (7 for 23) in the past year, including one last summer in his ONLY starter at Ellis Park,
for the same owner.
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