Ellis Starr's Picks

Honovi was 8 to 1, as his starting odds are for this race, when he checked in sixth of seven in an identical race on July 26. That race was MUCH better than it looks on paper, as he was beaten just two and three-quarter lengths at the end. That margin happens to be the same margin he was behind the leaders with 3/16 of a mile to go and with 1/8 of a mile to go. In short, Honovi had no chance to run at full stride the entire last 3/16 of a mile because he was stuck behind a wall of horses. Prior to that he rallied from 12 lengths back early to get second in a big effort, similar to the one he put in three races before that in January when beaten in a blanket finish. Just needing a little path to stretch his legs in the late stages today, Honovi can get up in time and post the mild upset. 

Morocco is the starting favorite on the strength of his half-length defeat to similar when last seen on July 12. However, his record this year is one-for-eight and in his career he has twice as many second place finishes (8) than wins (4) so he’s no lock. Since joining the Maker barn via the claim in February, Morocco is one for six although he was over-matched in a stakes in one of those races. He gets the rail and should be finishing late so has to be used on all exacta tickets we play but opening at 7 to 5 odds he’s a poor win bet.