Ellis Starr's Picks

Claytnthelionheart at first glance appears to have run poorly in his most recent race 14 days ago at this mile trip at Ellis Park, checking in sixth of eight without threatening. However, a look at the fact he had been off for more than eight months of before that provides the theory he needed a race before showing better form. Ample evidence of that is found looking at his first race of 2019, in June, when coming back from eight months off. He finished sixth in that race, before winning his next two races As such, I expect Claytnthelionheart will be closer to the likely early pace set by Admire and/or Believeinholidays and can repeat either of his efforts from a year and 13 months ago to win.

Admire is the one to beat on paper as he’s won two in a row, both routes (a mile or more). The first came at Churchill Downs in June with a career-best 97 Equibase Figure (a number representing time and including various factors we can’t see), then he ran as well three weeks later at Keeneland to earn a 95 figure. He earned the first of those two wins leading from start to finish and the second when sitting in second early so if Believeinholidays goes to the front, Admire will be in a great spot to win again. However, those 95 and 97 figure efforts are equal to, NOT better than, the 97 and 91 efforts Claytnthelionheart earned in his two wins in a row last summer to that’s why these two stick out against the rest in my opinion.