Ellis Starr's Picks

(At the $1 minimum, this bet has a cost of $18. We win if #3 #5 or #9 comes in first and any of the other six horses come in second. If all 11 horses run there are 110 possibilities for first and second so even though we have about a 1 in 6 chance of winning (a bit higher because a few horses have little probability to finish in the top two) the payoff could be well worth the risk because of the odds of a couple of the horses we are using).

Hey Kitten stayed in a race scheduled for turf on 6/21 which was run on a sloppy track, the first time she had ever not run on turf. It turned out to be a mistake as she was fifth of six and beaten over 20 lengths. Prior to that she finished third twice in a row, and two before the first or those third place efforts she won nicely. She was claimed out of the third place finish on 5/31 before the sloppy start so this is essentially her first try on grass for her new connections, including high percentage trainer Diodoro, who has won or placed with half of his eight starters at the meeting. It’s very interesting Miguel Mena rides, as Mena rode Miss Mosaic to a near win on July 7 and although never having ridden Hey Kitten before he and his agent choose her. That’s a very positive e sign in my opinion and if she runs back to her 5/31 race, her 3/29 race or 1/8/20 race she can post the upset here as she opens at 15/1.

Osaka Girl has done little wrong in her last three races, with one win and two close-up second place finishes. She was beaten a nose under nearly identical conditions four weeks ago and has a big shot to be first or second today. 

Bye Bye Bully’s has just a 1 for 16 record in her career including no wins in eight races on grass. However a closer inspection reveals she has been second or third in six of those previous eight turf races. Two of her best efforts came in her last two starts following a three month layoff, the most recent when she was just three quarters of a length behind runner-up Sister Kitten, who opens at 3 to 1 odds compared to 8 to 1 for Bye Bye Bully’s. The jockey change from Julie Burke to James Graham is perhaps worth most if not all of the 1 ¾ lengths the filly was beaten last out and it must be pointed out those two excellent efforts in June and July came after blinkers were added so she appears to be more competitive with the new equipment.