#4 Shackleford’s Joy – minimum win betting odds 5/2
#2 Sky Ride – minimum win betting odds 5/2
#3 Homebred – minimum win betting odds – 5/2
Box 2,3,4,9 (#9 is Chasin Charlie)
Shackleford’s Joy may have finished sixth in his most recent race (June 18) but it was a good effort in a good race. He made a move three paths wide with a quarter mile to run to get to second then tired but the race turned out to be VERY productive. We call this a “KEY Race.” To date, the winner came back to just miss in a stakes earlier this week at Canterbury Park and the third horse finished second. The fourth and fifth horses both won their next starts. Shackleford’s Joy has some decent form on turf, winning one before last with a strong 93 Equibase figure which is the second best figure by any horse on turf in the field, and he missed by a neck on grass last summer. With Talamo staying with him, I give Shackleford’s Joy a big shot to run back to his 5/29 race and win.
Sky Ride won over the course at this distance two weeks ago, gamely by a neck. He fits perfectly at this first allowance level off a maiden win and he can improve as he’s making his third start off a layoff. Jockey Hernandez has the best stats of any jockey in the race in turf sprints, having won 26% in the past year as well.
Homebred won by almost nine lengths at the distance on grass two before last in February the came up a neck short of winning under identical conditions in March. He took three months off and then on 6/22 he got a really poor start, his own fault, but that cost him position. Graham, who was up for the win and the near miss, gets back on after another jockey rode him last out and that could make the difference in getting Homebred to run as well as he did in either of those other two recent turf sprint starts.
Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” has been a racing fan for 50 years and understands all aspects of handicapping as well as betting. More than 25 years ago, Ellis was one of the first handicappers to publish his selections on the Internet and to share his knowledge on a daily basis.
Ellis is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, the Thoroughbred industry’s official source for Racing Information, writing a widely distributed “Race of the Week” story analyzing top races in North America, which also appears on the web site America’s Best Racing. Ellis also publishes insights, analysis and selections for other races around the country as blogs and as a podcast which may be found at Amwager and Keeneland Select, as well as via twitter @ubercapper and on the web sites of top racetracks such as Del Mar, Ellis Park, Keeneland, Santa Anita and Woodbine.
Ellis also participates in handicapping tournaments, winning the Belmont Shootout a few years back and the National Handicapping Championship Charity Challenge in 2017. He is among the few that participate annually in the Keeneland Tournament of Champions.
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Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free
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