#2 Pat Daddy – minimum win betting odds 2/1
#5 Nice Work – minimum win betting odds – 4/1
2 over 5 over 3,7
2 over 3,7 over 5
#3 is Prince Pierce, #7 is Degrom
Pat Daddy sticks out as a win contender and Nice Work (who opens at 12/1) has a shot to get clear and never look back. The two starting favorites, Prince Pierce and Degrom both have a couple of knocks, the former not having run nearly as fast as Pat Daddy except one time in the past year and coming off a trouncing when beaten almost 12 lengths, and the latter running first off the claim by a higher percentage winning trainer (Sadler) while cutting back to one turn which he’s run four times in his 39 race career with the best finish a third place effort.
Meanwhile, Pat Daddy went two-for-two last summer over the track, both wins in tough starter allowance conditions. He should take up a seat right behind likely early leader Nice Work and win lie he did four back at Oaklawn in April. The race he finished fourth in last out at Churchill Downs turned out to be a VERY PRODUCTIVE race as the winner subsequently finished second and both the runner-up and third finishers won their next starts.
Nice Work wired the field over the track three weeks ago versus easier and has won back-to-back before. Although he’s never run this seven furlong trip there’s little concern if he gets an easy lead which could lead to a second win and playing hard to catch in the stretch. The 96 Equibase figure earned in April, 2019 at Santa Anita when he was last in top form (as he is now) stacks up just a bit behind the 104 and 108 figures Pat Daddy earned this spring at Oaklawn.
Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” has been a racing fan for 50 years and understands all aspects of handicapping as well as betting. More than 25 years ago, Ellis was one of the first handicappers to publish his selections on the Internet and to share his knowledge on a daily basis.
Ellis is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, the Thoroughbred industry’s official source for Racing Information, writing a widely distributed “Race of the Week” story analyzing top races in North America, which also appears on the web site America’s Best Racing. Ellis also publishes insights, analysis and selections for other races around the country as blogs and as a podcast which may be found at Amwager and Keeneland Select, as well as via twitter @ubercapper and on the web sites of top racetracks such as Del Mar, Ellis Park, Keeneland, Santa Anita and Woodbine.
Ellis also participates in handicapping tournaments, winning the Belmont Shootout a few years back and the National Handicapping Championship Charity Challenge in 2017. He is among the few that participate annually in the Keeneland Tournament of Champions.
Weekend Stakes Blog at https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/
Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast at amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog
Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free
Free Selection for one free race daily at:
Santa Anita - www.santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr