#4 Big Beautiful Wall – minimum win betting odds 3/1
#2 Limnery – minimum win betting odds 3/1
#10 Believeinholidays – minimum win betting odds 9/2
Optionally play 2,4,10 over ALL (hoping for a long shot in second)
If the race goes as drawn, the early pace should be contested and faster than average because Beverly Park is stretching out from sprints and because Clear for Action is a need-the-lead type. Additionally, Hersh, who added blinkers three races back, is also stretching out and is likely to be right on the lead or close to it for at least the opening half-mile.
All that early pace sets up the three contenders nicely, starting with Big Beautiful Wall, who rallied a bit too early in his most recent start to make the lead with a quarter mile to go then was passed late, ending up third. Still he was only a neck from the runner-up. Leparoux rides back and among the horse’s 14 career starts, the three Leparoux was aboard are his best including his only win, last September on the grass at Kentucky Downs. As such, I expect Big Beautiful Wall to be in the right place at the right time to rally and win.
Limnery, like Big Beautiful Wall, has just one win in his career, in nine starts (compared to 14 for Big Beautiful Wall). He led late and missed by a head in a three horse photo finish one before last then the horse who out finished him for second came back to beat him one month later in March. Although he lost ground in the stretch in both races, Limnery ran the fastest any horse in this field has run, earning 97 and 102 Equibase figures, so repeating either of those efforts in this race should get him into the exacta at the very least.
Believeinholidays suffers from the same issues at Limnery as he’s lost ground in the stretch in his last two turf races. He was within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch on 2/28 and held second but lost by a length and one-half, then after nearly four months off he led at the top of the stretch on 6/18 and settled for second by a length and one-quarter. His 86 and 83 figures from those efforts are a bit lower than the 92 and 95 best figures Big Beautiful Wall earned in his races most representative of this one and the 87 and 102 figures Limnery earned in his two most recent races so it’s likely Believeinholidaysis more likely to be second or third than win. This is also evidenced by the fact he has nine second place finishes and seven third place finishes in 25 races to go along with just two wins. Just the same, he opens at 8/1 and so a win bet is not out of the question in this race in which most of the entrants have one career win.
Ellis Starr, a.k.a. “Ubercapper,” has been a racing fan for 50 years and understands all aspects of handicapping as well as betting. More than 25 years ago, Ellis was one of the first handicappers to publish his selections on the Internet and to share his knowledge on a daily basis.
Ellis is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, the Thoroughbred industry’s official source for Racing Information, writing a widely distributed “Race of the Week” story analyzing top races in North America, which also appears on the web site America’s Best Racing. Ellis also publishes insights, analysis and selections for other races around the country as blogs and as a podcast which may be found at Amwager and Keeneland Select, as well as via twitter @ubercapper and on the web sites of top racetracks such as Del Mar, Ellis Park, Keeneland, Santa Anita and Woodbine.
Ellis also participates in handicapping tournaments, winning the Belmont Shootout a few years back and the National Handicapping Championship Charity Challenge in 2017. He is among the few that participate annually in the Keeneland Tournament of Champions.
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