Ellis Starr's Picks
Saturday July 30, 2021

Races 4 and 8

Race 4

Win contender with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#7 Mr Sippi – minimum win betting odds 8 to 5

7 over 3, 4, 5, 6, 8

#3 is Lamutanaatty, #4 is Flint Ridge, #5 is Comiskey Park, #6 is Let My People Go, #8 is Silk Trade

Mr Sippi was claimed two back by good trainer Hartman, winning with nearly 25% of all his starters this year to
date. The four year old finished second of 10 in a highly rated allowance race at Churchill Downs on 6/11 off
the claim and first time with Murrill riding, then improved by a ton second off the claim on July 4 when powering
off to a two and three-quarter length win. He ran fast enough to earn a 101 Equibase figure the equivalent of a
non-graded stakes race and more than good enough to win this allowance level race, and the cut back from
seven furlongs to six furlongs only enhances his chances for a trainer with a very strong 33% back-to-back win
rate over the last year.



Race 8

Win contender with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#2 Famed – minimum win betting odds 2 to 1
#1 Solar Reign – minimum win betting odds 2 to 1
#9 Queens Up – minimum win betting odds 3 to 1

Box 1, 2, 9

Famed, a half-sister to champion Essential Quality (8 for 10 with losses only in the Kentucky Derby and
Breeders’ Cup Classic), didn’t win the first five races of her career like her brother, but did run big in his first
and second starts when second, then winning by almost eight lengths, last fall. She ended the year with fourth
and third place finishes, took five months off, then returned on 6/18 in a highly rated allowance race, finishing
third of 10. The runner-up in that race won the Wilton Stakes on opening day at Saratoga, and the ninth
finisher also improved to win, so with logical improvement second off the layoff this filly gets a slight edge over
two other contenders.

Solar Reign ran exceptionally well first out when leading from the start and drawing off late. That win came 20
days ago at Ellis Park and red hot trainer Ortiz (7 for 15 at the meet) does very well keeping his horses in top
form. Gutierrez rides back and this gal would easily play “come catch me” from start to finish once again.
Queens Up won the first race of her career last August, then finished second in the Arlington Washington
Stakes, showing a lot or maturity in both starts when rallying from off the pace. After a poor 10 th place effort she
took nine months off and finished fine for third over the track at the level three weeks ago. Like Solar Reign
and like Famed, Queens Up can improve and has potential to post the mild upset by just improving a bit more
than the other two in her second start off the layoff.





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