Ellis Starr's Picks
Sunday August 28, 2022

Race 4 and Race 6


Race 4

Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#4 Pyrenees – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#5 Mullion – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2
#9 Tap in Formation – minimum win betting odds 5 to 2

Pyrenees debuts and likely has the talent to win at first asking, even in this salty field of two year old colts. He put in a very sharp 47.4 half-mile workout on August 16 and he's a half-sister to Grace Adler, who won at first asking and won a stakes race as a two year old. I expect him to be very live in his debut.
Then there’s the BUZZ horse Mullion, a FULL BROTHER to 2021 Kentucky Derby winner (via DQ)
Mandaloun. He too has been working well for his debut, particularly a 59.4 five furlong drill on 8/15, and his
brother won at first asking so we can expect a competitive effort. We can also expect him to be bet, perhaps
heavily, and he’s no standout even with his fantastic breeding.

Tap in Formation put in three spectacular workouts in a row leading to his debut, the most recent a sizzling
45.6 half-mile drill. He’s bred to win early as a son of Tapiture out of a mare who produced Li’l Tootsie, who
earned over a half-million. A couple of her foals ran big first out and it appears this horse may do the same.



Race 6
Win contenders with minimum (fair) odds for considering win bets:
#5 Twice as Sweet – minimum win betting odds 3 to 2
#6 Della Luce – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1
#7 Jersey Pearl – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1
#10 Girl Named Charlie – minimum win betting odds 4 to 1

Twice as Sweet had an edge on the rest of these, mostly first time starters and horses who didn’t run
particularly well last time out, in that she ran too good to lose in her debut three weeks ago when dueling for
the lead for most of the race then settling for second, beaten just a half-length at the end and seven lengths
clear of the third horse. With logical improvement off the experience of a race she should graduate from the
maiden ranks here.

Still, there are some very well bred first time starters here and a second time starter who can improve markedly
so we must consider three others with a chance. Della Luce is likely to be a longshot as she’s a California
bred horse working in Louisiana making her debut in Kentucky for a trainer mostly unknown to locals. She’s by
a dam who has had four foals to race, with two winning first out and all four being winners. Hot apprentice
Holmes takes the call and I would likely want to bet a couple of bucks on her just in case she produces a
massive upset.

Jersey Pearl is another out of a dam of two first out winners from four foals and that is very precocious
breeding. She’s been working consistently for her debut and trainer Lynch wins with his share of first time

Girl Named Charlie ran on okay from seventh to fourth in her debut over the track on July 31 and has come
back to work three times since. The workout just before the debut was very nice and she might move up off the
experience of a race, perhaps not enough to beat Twice as Sweet, but to get into the money at the least and it
must be noted that her dam has produced a winner of two from three other foals.



Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper
Other racing content

Weekend Stakes Blog at https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/

Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast at amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog

Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free

Free Selection for one free race daily at:
Woodbine - https://woodbine.com/handicapping/ellis-starr/
Santa Anita - santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr

Keeneland - keeneland.com/racing/wagering/expert-picks/Ellis Starr
Ellis Park - https://ellisparkracing.com/ click racing then the date for Ellis Starr’s picks
Del Mar - https://www.dmtc.com/contest/51 (free but sign up required)